See global consumption reducing in India: Anagram Capital

Q: Sentiment has actually turned 360 from the start of this month to now how high at any rate do you put the probability that we get to those October lows?

A: We will have these bear rallies and will see upswings but fundamentally the news just gets worse and at least what we have seen is that if we look at the indexes around the world, I think they preempted the slow down in the economies in growth and preempted the recessions. Unless fundamentally, there is some trigger to say that there is a demand picking up, capacities are being increased, production has been increased, consumption is increasing by and large you are going to see worse results coming out from corporates or lower toplines, lower profitability and in the absence of this there is not enough liquidity around the world to fund all the losses that we have had.

If we look at India, it has been a growth economy. If we have a slow down in consumption in the private sector, then the only way to really kick start our economy is by public spending and there is enough reason for public spending by the government in infrastructure. But unfortunately we are at the end of 2008, we have got so many state elections going on we have got the general elections in 2009. Also I doubt whether there is anyway in the next six-eight months or nine-months where the government can come up with a very positive programme on saying that, this is what the stimulus that the economy needs yes, we can keep on tinkering around with interest rates and stuff like that. 

Q: What would you do with private sector banks now?

A: There are opportunities to trade on both sides.It is a one-way street and it is a downward one-way street.  So yes, you can trade and there will be options to trade on both the sides but if one wants to look at from a longer perspective then one just keeps as much cash and power dry and there will be I suspect very lucrative deals in the next few months, six months at much lower valuations than where we are currently.

Q: At this point would you be able to count out two-three high conviction buys even from the Nifty list?

A: I will not get into any specific stocks. But I think that this is what my position has been this is a trader’s market, you would trade on both sides and for quite a foreseeable future. So are there picks out there, of course there are picks out there but it is still a trader’s market fundamentally. I would continue with that position that you can afford to wait out you are not going to miss anything if as a fundamental investor, you will say that I do not need to get into the market today I can take my time and get there and there will be better opportunities and I if I don’t make a decision today, I am going to miss something substantial.