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Mkt to see more pain in coming quarters: Experts

Published on Tue, Nov 11, 2008 at 17:36 , Updated at Wed, Nov 12, 2008 at 09:31
Source : CNBC-TV18

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Benchmark indices snapped two days of rally and witnessed a sharp fall. Both indices washed out Monday's gain on account of a huge profit booking in realty, metal, capital goods, oil, banking and power stocks. Weak global cues also fuelled the negative sentiment.

The Sensex plunged 696.47 points or 6.61% to 9,839.69 after hitting an intraday low of 9,799.45. The 50-share NSE Nifty touched a low of 2919.45, before closing the day with a loss of 209.6 points or 6.665 at 2938.65. All BSE sectoral indices closed in red.

Experts on roads ahead for markets:

Mehraboon Irani, VP-PMS, Centrum Broking, said, "While margins may show some signs of improvement after one or two quarters, the fact is that toplines are going to suffer and this is going to be across many sectors. Even production shutdowns are going to lead to a lot of pain. "So, it is going to be painful for the next two quarters even for the markets apart from corporate performance.”

 

“In this type of pain, I don’t think there is a bottom for the market. While sharp dips would see money coming back into the market; we also have a supply overhang of stocks in this market. This large overhang of supply getting absorbed is not going to be easy. So, it is going to be painful for the next two quarters even for the markets apart from corporate performance.”

 

According to Irani, even December quarter numbers are not going to be good and this market is going to provide opportunities only to those people who have deep pockets and who are going to buy on dips and sell on every rallies and every time the market shows a sign of rally.

 

So the markets may retest the lows sometimes in December or January, when the December quarter results start speculating.

Sajiv Dhawan, JV Capital Services, believes that the markets still lack clarity and confidence and more importantly conviction at higher levels. People are still skeptical and scared of taking fresh long positions above 3,100 or 3,200 levels on the Nifty.

“Markets are still very fluid and they are moving 5-6% a day and so if they continue like this it is quite easy to see them slip another few 100 points. I think buying aggressively would come back in on 2,500, but again that is being countered by the selling which is there at 3,100-3,200 levels.”

According to Dhawan, investors still probably will have to be patient for another couple of weeks and hope that the markets do stabilize then.


Vijay Bhambwani, bspindia.com, said "Strictly for today and tomorrow, I would watch out the 2,850 to 2,880 band on the Nifty spot. Should it actually decline below that I think the probability of 2,675 becomes a fair kind of an event."

Messages on Market Outlook - Short Term

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Other comments

Where do you see Nifty in January?

yes i was wrong/..... dead wrong... it went below the expected 180 which was the max donside i gave it... but i pi...

in Market Outlook - Short Term - nightowl at 10-Jan-09 01:44

Where do you see Nifty in January?

is it ibrar... my memory??? not as good as it used to be ... and i became complacent.. somthing which i had been ad...

in Market Outlook - Short Term - nightowl at 10-Jan-09 01:40

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Markets Roundup

  • Sectors
  • Gainers/Losers
  • World
BSE Auto 2523.51 25.19
BANKEX 5381.36 107.88
Bank Nifty 4906.70 77.85
Capital Goods 6679.42 329.35
Consumer Durables 1809.02 44.43
BSE FMCG 1993.96 24.11
BSE Healthcare 2872.75 13.40
BSE IT 2131.99 3.83
BSE Metals 5203.86 401.38
Oil and Gas 5777.59 166.82
BSE PSU 5184.22 68.59
BSE TECk 1800.05 34.32
BSE Small Cap 3555.60 106.92
BSE Mid-Cap 3120.79 77.12
CNX Midcap 3539.10 108.10
Top Gainers | NSE | BSE
Top Losers | NSE | BSE
Advances/ Declines | NSE | BSE
Turnover (NSE) Turnover (BSE)
FII Activity MF Activity
  Price Change
Nymex Crude $ 40.62 -0.21
Re Vs $ Rs 48.26 -0.54
US
Dow Jones (Jan 09) 8599.18 143.28
Nasdaq (Jan 09) 1571.59 45.42
Asia
Nikkei 225 (Jan 9) 8836.80 39.62
Straits Times (Jan 9) 1806.02 21.59
Hang Seng (Jan 9) 14377.44 38.47
Taiwan Index (Jan 9) 4502.74 33.05
KOSPI (Jan 9) 1180.96 24.74
Thailand SET (Jan 9) 459.06 5.97
Jakarta Composite (Jan 9) 1416.67 14.01
Shanghai Composite (Jan 10) 1904.86 26.68
Europe
FTSE (Jan 9) 4448.54 56.83
CAC (Jan 9) 3299.50 24.83
DAX (Jan 9) 4783.89 96.02

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