By Varinder Bansal, CNBC-TV18

If you just see the Sensex, it has corrected only 6% from its peak. This was bound to happen on the backdrop of the global cues, which you have seen. Meanwhile, if you just analyze all the Asian markets, on the average most of them have fallen around 13% from the peaks.

If one sees the 2008 returns, the Sensex has fallen merely around 1-1.5%, but if you just see some from the Asian markets, they have all fallen anywhere between 7-10%. Kospi has fallen 10% in 2008 and the Dow Jones has fallen around 6%. So we have relatively outperformed most of the Asian markets. This has resulted in some profit taking from our market.

If one just takes a look at the global concerns which are coming in, recession is the biggest concern which is coming from the US markets. That has been testified by some of the statements coming from Goldman Sachs and also Morgan Stanley, which has pointed that there is a likely recession or US markets will be there shortly. 

There are also financial banks which are reporting more write-downs. There are also reports suggesting there could be more layoffs and also capital infusion. We had reports of Citigroup mentioning around USD 18 billion write downs coming yesterday. There is also Merrill Lynch and JP Morgan chase, which will be coming out with results in this week. So there could be some bad news coming from it.

Here are the most important points, which you have to look forward, going ahead. The first one is there are speculations which are going into the market, and which are mere speculations that there could be an emergency Fed meet and this could provide some fillip to the market.

Also, the Fed fund futures are up pricing around 45% of probability of a 75- basis point cut and around a 100% probability of around 50-basis point cut. So even if there is 50-basis point cut, there could be some disappointment and only a 75-basis point cut could give some relief to the market. There are results from JP Morgan and Merrill Lynch, which could provide some pain to the market because there are reports suggesting that there could be some overwrite downs.

Also, if one wants to go for the interest rate outlook, today and tomorrow are the most important days because there is Beige Book Data, which is releasing today. There is also Mr Bernanke who has testified before the Congress. So there could be more clarity on the interest rates for today and tomorrow.